Unclear. Hard to de-link Hezbollah from Iran which clearly needs to buy time to repair its air defense systems. If Israel doesn’t stay on offense w/r/t Hezbollah re-arming as well as proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, any successes in Lebanon will be short lived.
I don’t think fighting the proxies from the outside in ends the conflict in any meaningful way. Degrading threats on the perimeter until more focus can be put on Iran is probably the best we can do right now. It will take them a long time to rebuild what’s been lost, especially in the context of likely harsher economic sanctions on Iran that are coming.
Hopefully yes. In the coming months. IDF seems to be advising for each family to decide for themselves if they want to return north or not. I suspect many will.
“Hard to de-link Hezbollah from Iran which clearly needs to buy time to repair its air defense systems.”
That seems to me to be a critically important point. In other words:
1) Hezbollah, as a significant threat to Israel, exists symbiotically through Iran.
2) Iran is ‘the head of the snake’. All of the various conflicts Israel is forced to deal with have their source in Iran, and the whole world has known that for many years.
Various US Administrations have applied pressure against Israel to prevent direct action targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, not to mention her oil production and exporting industries, which provide funds to facilitate terror, as well as placate public sentiment. Quite understandably, but regretfully, Israel has observed the growing threats on her borders and within Iran for many years, but allowed themselves to be persuaded not to take direct action to counter these threats, instead essentially ‘kicking the can down the road’ and occasionally ‘mowing the grass’.
3) The greatly feared threats of a massive, debilitating Hezbollah strike have essentially been nullified by Israel’s direct actions over the past several months. For quite some time, they will be incapable of mounting the surprise attacks that had long formed the key element in their strategy to overwhelm Israel, taking control of cities and towns, using Israelis as hostages, etc.
While the present agreement is probably insufficient to see the return of the majority of Israel’s Northern population, with the resumption of economic activity and civic life, there are many potential near and short-term benefits to be realized from it, and I believe it was a wise - if not, ‘inspired’ - politically and militarily move.
4) To address the key point, however, this new shift in Israel’s position allows for a direct targeted strike against Iran to be made - before Iran can repair or build up its air defense systems, including receiving and mobilizing new S-400s and advanced Russian fighters.
With their ‘insurance policy’ now effectively voided, Iran is virtually certain to be rushing to create a credible nuclear offensive capability, for defense of its strategic infrastructure, if nothing else.
Agree that the deal makes sense for many reasons. But if you’re Iran, knowing that Trump will soon be in charge, you probably try to publicly de-escalate while secretly rush to nuclear breakout. How hard would it be to smuggle a tactical nuke into the hands of a proxy within striking distance of Israel? Trump can apply maximum pressure but as long as China keeps buying Iranian oil in large amounts the existential threat to Israel remains. I’d like to think Israeli political and military leadership gets this but then again they let 10/7 happen. In short anyway you look at this the mullahs gotta go sooner rather than later.
It would be a sweet ending if Lebanon and Israel could sign a peace treaty while Hezbollah has been degraded. Israel showed the rest of Lebanon what war will bring and their economy has already cratered. Plus they have a mutual goal of developing the gas deposits off of the coast. The Trump administration could be a force to help make this happen along with France.
I honestly don’t know. Certainly, Hezbollah took a punishing blow with the killing or maiming of much of its senior leadership, but it is still firing missiles and rockets into Israel and it remains to be seen if residents of Northern Israel will be able to return safely to their homes.
The'enforcers' of the ceasefire are the same group tasked with enforcing UN 1701 - we know how that worked out. I read reporting that the Lebanese Army largely answers to Hezbollah (read Iran) as does the parliament. Thus, the enforcement mechanism is fraught. As I write this, a MSM reporter on a guided tour into southern Lebanon was advised by her guide to turn a certain direction at the next intersection because Hezbollah was in the other direction moving a weapons cache.Hmmmm.
I agree that the IDF needs some space for R&R, maintenane, and resupply. Northern Israel civilians need a respite from the interminable alerts and shelter-dwelling at all hours of the day. How long this window remains open is conjecture at this time. Perhaps the incoming US administration will provide the diplomatic backbone that Biden lacked.
Well, well, well. Just now Tzofar alerted for rocket fire on Arab al-Aramshe.
Unclear. Hard to de-link Hezbollah from Iran which clearly needs to buy time to repair its air defense systems. If Israel doesn’t stay on offense w/r/t Hezbollah re-arming as well as proxies in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, any successes in Lebanon will be short lived.
I don’t think fighting the proxies from the outside in ends the conflict in any meaningful way. Degrading threats on the perimeter until more focus can be put on Iran is probably the best we can do right now. It will take them a long time to rebuild what’s been lost, especially in the context of likely harsher economic sanctions on Iran that are coming.
If you live in Metula, are you loading up the wife and kids in the car and going home??
Hopefully yes. In the coming months. IDF seems to be advising for each family to decide for themselves if they want to return north or not. I suspect many will.
“Hard to de-link Hezbollah from Iran which clearly needs to buy time to repair its air defense systems.”
That seems to me to be a critically important point. In other words:
1) Hezbollah, as a significant threat to Israel, exists symbiotically through Iran.
2) Iran is ‘the head of the snake’. All of the various conflicts Israel is forced to deal with have their source in Iran, and the whole world has known that for many years.
Various US Administrations have applied pressure against Israel to prevent direct action targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, not to mention her oil production and exporting industries, which provide funds to facilitate terror, as well as placate public sentiment. Quite understandably, but regretfully, Israel has observed the growing threats on her borders and within Iran for many years, but allowed themselves to be persuaded not to take direct action to counter these threats, instead essentially ‘kicking the can down the road’ and occasionally ‘mowing the grass’.
3) The greatly feared threats of a massive, debilitating Hezbollah strike have essentially been nullified by Israel’s direct actions over the past several months. For quite some time, they will be incapable of mounting the surprise attacks that had long formed the key element in their strategy to overwhelm Israel, taking control of cities and towns, using Israelis as hostages, etc.
While the present agreement is probably insufficient to see the return of the majority of Israel’s Northern population, with the resumption of economic activity and civic life, there are many potential near and short-term benefits to be realized from it, and I believe it was a wise - if not, ‘inspired’ - politically and militarily move.
4) To address the key point, however, this new shift in Israel’s position allows for a direct targeted strike against Iran to be made - before Iran can repair or build up its air defense systems, including receiving and mobilizing new S-400s and advanced Russian fighters.
With their ‘insurance policy’ now effectively voided, Iran is virtually certain to be rushing to create a credible nuclear offensive capability, for defense of its strategic infrastructure, if nothing else.
Agree that the deal makes sense for many reasons. But if you’re Iran, knowing that Trump will soon be in charge, you probably try to publicly de-escalate while secretly rush to nuclear breakout. How hard would it be to smuggle a tactical nuke into the hands of a proxy within striking distance of Israel? Trump can apply maximum pressure but as long as China keeps buying Iranian oil in large amounts the existential threat to Israel remains. I’d like to think Israeli political and military leadership gets this but then again they let 10/7 happen. In short anyway you look at this the mullahs gotta go sooner rather than later.
It would be a sweet ending if Lebanon and Israel could sign a peace treaty while Hezbollah has been degraded. Israel showed the rest of Lebanon what war will bring and their economy has already cratered. Plus they have a mutual goal of developing the gas deposits off of the coast. The Trump administration could be a force to help make this happen along with France.
There are tons of bright possibilities for all parties if Israel’s neighbors were all willing to recognize Israel’s right to exist.
Spot on. Great analysis.
Thank you for reading and for your daily, weekly, and monthly reminders that Hamas chose war 🎯
I honestly don’t know. Certainly, Hezbollah took a punishing blow with the killing or maiming of much of its senior leadership, but it is still firing missiles and rockets into Israel and it remains to be seen if residents of Northern Israel will be able to return safely to their homes.
The'enforcers' of the ceasefire are the same group tasked with enforcing UN 1701 - we know how that worked out. I read reporting that the Lebanese Army largely answers to Hezbollah (read Iran) as does the parliament. Thus, the enforcement mechanism is fraught. As I write this, a MSM reporter on a guided tour into southern Lebanon was advised by her guide to turn a certain direction at the next intersection because Hezbollah was in the other direction moving a weapons cache.Hmmmm.
I agree that the IDF needs some space for R&R, maintenane, and resupply. Northern Israel civilians need a respite from the interminable alerts and shelter-dwelling at all hours of the day. How long this window remains open is conjecture at this time. Perhaps the incoming US administration will provide the diplomatic backbone that Biden lacked.
Well, well, well. Just now Tzofar alerted for rocket fire on Arab al-Aramshe.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this.
Lebanon as a country has been gutted for years. It’s just Hezbollah. Wait until January 20 and maybe Israel will have a real ally