Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire as of this morning in a deal brokered by the US and France. Before we talk about the consequences of the deal and if it’s ‘good’ or ‘bad’ for Israelis, let’s first understand what’s in it.
What’s in the ceasefire deal?
The agreement calls for a two-month initial halt in fighting and would require Hezbollah to end its armed presence in most of southern Lebanon, while Israeli troops would return to their side of the border over time.
Hezbollah is supposed to withdraw its forces to north of the Litani river, which runs anywhere between twenty-seven and three kilometers from the Lebanon-Israel border. This will mean that Hezbollah will abandon what is left of its military infrastructure and positions. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are planning to deploy an initial five thousand troops to the southern border district as the Israeli military withdraws back into Israel.
What about Gaza? The deal does not address Gaza where Hamas is still holding dozens of hostages. That said, it’s anticipated the deal will put increased pressure on Hamas.
Can civilians return home? Since the deal went into effect, thousands of displaced Lebanese have begun returning to their homes in the south. However, the Israeli military warned them not to move south of the Litani River. Separately, residents of northern Israel can decide for themselves when to return home.
Israel will retain the right to undertake unilateral military action if it determines that Hezbollah is breaching the agreement and the LAF and the United Nations peacekeeping force are seen to be doing nothing about it.
According to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, the goal of Israel’s war with Hezbollah intended to “damage Hezbollah’s capabilities and create the conditions for the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes."
Katz elaborated, “from here we look towards the southern front, with the most important goal being to return all the kidnapped people home safely and quickly… We intend to make every effort to create the conditions for a new hostage deal and to bring everyone home -- this is the most important moral goal we are facing now, this is the ultimate goal."
So did Israel achieve her goals or not?
I don’t presume I know more about the impact of this deal than Israelis living there, so let’s look at a recent snap poll performed by Channel 12 in Israel.
When asked if Israelis support or oppose “the arrangement that has been drawn up as regards Lebanon,” 37 percent of respondents said they supported the terms, 32% said that they opposed them and 31% said they didn’t know.
Like most polarized Western democracies, the poll results broke largely along party lines and whether they support or oppose Bibi’s coalition had a dramatic impact on sentiment for the peace treaty.
As to how long Israelis believe the ceasefire deal would hold, 24% said they thought it would last “for years,” while 28% said it would last “a few months,” and 30% said it would “collapse after a short time.” Another 18% of people said that they didn’t know.
It is unlikely we will know for months, years, or even decades if this ceasefire was a victory or simply a pause in the fighting, but let’s look closer at the alternatives Israel had and why I believe this was a strategic win for Israel.
The reality is the Biden administration has been a poor ally to Israel since the war began on October 7th. They hampered Israel’s war efforts by doing everything from slow walking military aid, hamstringing the IDFs Rafah invasion plans, failing to defend Israel vigorously on the world stage, and failing to prevent intelligence leaks about Israeli plans tocounterattack Iran. Who knows what unpleasant surprises 2 more months of this administrations destructive policies toward Israel could bring. The treaty is long enough, if it holds, to ensure a new administration will be in place in the US that could be a positive paradigm shift in Israeli and US relations.
Also, Israel’s army is not designed for long wars as we discussed in detail in the editorial analyzing Israeli National Security. Reservists have been fighting a war on the Wests behalf against a radical Islamist ideology on more than 7 fronts (Gaza, West Bank, militias in Iraq and Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and of course Iran.) Any nation would feel the burdens wrought from over a year of making such tremendous sacrifices, and to give them a bit of reprieve could temporarily boost morale.
Most importantly, and perhaps most depressingly, I am not sure the ideology of radical Islamic terror groups can ever truly be defeated from the outside, it needs to be fought from within by Islamic organizations and by the people living in nations that harbor and enable terror groups in their orbit.
The leadership of Hezbollah has been dismantled, their weapons caches have been largely destroyed and as such their military capabilities to launch future attacks has been significantly degraded. I do believe now is the right time for Israel to leverage the military victory on the ground into a political victory in Lebanon and I am glad to see them trying.
So did Israel win? I believe they have. I think this will net help Israel and the risks of Hezbollah rearming and regrouping are relatively low due to the nature of the terms.
The brave men and women of the IDF, especially those who have lost everything, have made this deal possible and their sacrifices will not be in vain. I believe Israel is well positioned to continue pushing their advantage over the next decade until deterrence either holds or is reestablished definitively.
Let us know what you think in the comments. Don’t forget to heart and restack if you enjoyed this editorial.
Sources
What we know about the deal so far
https://apnews.com/live/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-ceasefire-updates
https://abcnews.go.com/International/live-updates/israel-gaza-lebanon-live-updates-idf-prepares-beirut/?id=116191649
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/experts-react/experts-react-israel-and-lebanon-have-struck-a-ceasefire-deal-is-the-israel-hezbollah-war-really-over/
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hezbollah-ceasefire-deal-gaza-war-11-27-24-intl-hnk/index.html
How do Israelis feel about the war?
https://www.timesofisrael.com/20-of-coalition-voters-back-lebanon-truce-vs-50-of-opposition-voters-poll-finds/
Israeli National Security - why Israeli army is not built for long wars
Israel’s seven front war https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/12/israels-seven-front-war/
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